FIFA 18 ONES TO WATCH INVESTMENTS UPDATE, 12 JANUARY

MARKET OVERVIEW

With the release of Player of the Month, the market is now completely focused on the Team of the Year. Arguably the most important event of FUT each year, TOTY has prices bending to its will. Over the past week, the market rose ever so slightly (especially during WL buying); however, it is now looking like it is turning down.

Uncertainty about player prices has led many to wait to buy, and with the lack of buying we see a decline in item value. This is more apparent in the Icon market, especially the “cheaper” ones. Another little interesting thing to note is that the special item market has risen a little as many players begin to invest heavily.

Just as players are beginning to invest, a large area of that for FUT players is Ones to Watch items. Players are hoping to see an SBC in February, and that is apparent in the low end items rising tremendously this week. But there’s plenty more to talk about so let’s hit it:

Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. 

WEEKLY RETURNS & STATS

The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.

Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.

Quick take: We always like to highlight players with big difference in their range since it could be the best for investors that want to see potential profit. Players like Serge Aurier, Bertrand Traore and James Rodriguez are great examples of items with a lot of room to grow in value.

Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.

Quick take: Interestingly, elite players like Neymar and Kylian Mbappe have had really low volatility compared to other weeks which could signal they are leveling out in price, while Mohamed Salah and Kyle Walker could be poised for a rebound.

Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.

Quick take: Looking at the best risk/reward potential, the players with high betas that stand out are Alexander Lacazette, Nelson Semedo and Corentin Tolisso. All these players could be primed for huge jumps if they put in quality performances.

TOTW Shout This week saw three players receive HUGE hype for a TOTW spot, yet Federico Bernardeschi, Leonardo Bonucci and Douglas Costa were all snubbed. Poor luck for the Serie A men, but hopefully you sold into the hype.