FIFA 18 PATH TO GLORY INVESTMENTS UPDATE, 06/3

MARKET OVERVIEW

The continued Ratings Refresh promotion, sprinkled with a couple Icon SBCs carried the bulk of content from EA this week. With nothing too market breaking, it was actually a rather up and down week across the FIFA Ultimate Team market. The beginning of the week saw the market creep up due to Weekend League demand, but fell pretty sharply over the weekend sell-off period. Now, it seems to be back on its upward trend as the upcoming Weekend League looms.

Although the regular FUT market was a little lackluster, the Path to Glory market has exploded back onto the scene. Over the past couple of weeks, we kept saying that the PTG market decline had left some great opportunities, and this week they paid out! A healthy chunk of positive returns, paired with a nice Team of the Week shout means there’s a lot to unpack in the article below.

Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.

BIG WINNER – LEROY SANE (MANCHESTER CITY)

A big week for Manchester City as they are well on their way to a title, and it only gets better as Leroy Sane features as our biggest winner. A solid Team of the Week shout is the main driver behind his 32.4% weekly return; however, there is still plenty to talk about in terms of his outlook.

An incredibly high volatility figure (~31,000) is supplement by a tame beta (0.37), which is an interesting case for a big winner. Both of the previous statistics are risk metrics, so it would seem like they are conflicting, yet this is not the case as volatility speaks to how much his price can fluctuate on a daily basis, while beta speaks to how likely those fluctuations are supposed to happen.

So, watch out for Sane’s price to dip heavily if he misses on that TOTW, but stay stable if he features. Going forward, Manchester City still has quite a few fixtures and if they continue their form it’s only a matter of time before Sane can snag an inform.

BIG LOSER – DIVOCK ORIGI (WOLFSBURG)

Another tough year for Wolfsburg, and although there has been some bright spots, this week isn’t one of them as their Belgian striker, Divock Origi finds himself as a our biggest loser. A rough weekly return of -15.6% lands the Liverpool loanee here, but is there a silver lining here?

Breaking down his other weekly stats, a tame volatility (~2,900) and beta (-0.01) mean Origi’s decline can be attributed to a natural decline considering the bleak outlook of his teams performances. Yet, these low figures also suggest that his price should be stabilizing after this week, so could this be a nice investment?

As always, a large decline in price makes an item more affordable, and in Origi’s case this could be a nice opportunity. His stats suggest that he shouldn’t drop too much further, and a second inform could give his PTG item a quality upgrade. The possibility of pairing him and Michy Batshuayi up top means there is sizable hype potential here.

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